European food retail: price did all the work, not volumes

The calculation nobody publishes

A retailer cannot be judged on turnover alone. If turnover rises 4% while volumes fall 1%, the growth does not come from customers, it comes from the price tag.

Eurostat publishes both series for retail trade: net turnover and sales volume, each indexed to 2021 = 100. Their ratio gives the average price actually taken at the till, which neither retailers nor statistical institutes publish in this form.

Seven markets, one single driver

Colour key: green marks what goes the household's way, volumes up or prices down; red marks the opposite. Turnover stays neutral.

When the price rose, and when it stopped

A five-year cumulative figure flattens the chronology. Yet the chronology is what separates these markets. Here is the implicit average price as an annual average, still on a 2021 = 100 base.

It all happened in two years. Between 2021 and 2023, the euro-area average food price gained 20.8 points. What follows is a slow drift, not a second wave.

France is the market that stopped earliest and lowest: since 2023 its average price has gained only 1.8 point in three years. Spain never stopped rising, 9.9 points over the same period. Two neighbouring markets, two opposite ends to the shock.

Food did not share the fate of the rest of retail

Eurostat publishes the same two series for retail as a whole and for food alone. Comparing them answers the obvious question: is what we observe specific to food, or true of all spending?

The result admits no exception. In all seven markets, food volumes do worse than retail volumes as a whole, and food prices rise more. In the euro area, retail sells 4.4% more goods than in 2021 while food sells 1.2% less.

In other words, households did not cut their spending in general. They cut food quantities, and only those. That is where the trade-off happened, because that is where the rise was steepest and most visible day to day.

France is the exception, and that is not what you hear

Of the six countries compared, France is where the average food price has risen least since 2021, 20.5% against 27.1% in the euro area. It is also, of the seven, the only one to combine that restraint with rising volumes, 3.5%. Spain and Portugal gain more, 8.3% and 14.3%, but with average prices up 34.7% and 26.7%, far from French restraint.

At the other end, Belgium has lost 10.6% of food volumes in five years. That is not slower growth, it is a tenth of the goods gone from trolleys, while the average price there rose 26.6%.

The gap between shelf price and price paid

In 5 of the 6 markets, the average price taken rises LESS than the shelf price index. Households there have changed what goes in the basket: own brands, value formats, promotions. The shift is sharpest in Portugal, a gap of -8.6pt, and Germany, -4.7pt. The one exception is the Netherlands, where the two measures sit within 1.0 point of each other: the basket barely moved there.

This gap is published nowhere. It has to be calculated, and it says something neither series says alone: on which side of the shelf the adjustment happened.

Disinflation is not a fall

In July 2026, food inflation is back to 1.0% year on year in France, 0.8% in the euro area, and it is negative in Belgium and the Netherlands. Public debate often concludes that prices are falling. They are not: they have stopped rising, at a level still 27% above 2021.

For a retailer, that changes everything: turnover growth carried by price is running out, and volumes have not returned. For a supplier, the negotiation is no longer about passing on an increase but about sharing a volume that has stopped growing.

The retailers behind these figures

A market does not exist on its own: it is made of retailers that set prices, assortments and promotions. Here are the groups behind these seven markets, ranked by 2025 revenue, with a column that is rarely shown: what the figure actually rests on.

France's top three publish no accounts

Of the 13 groups listed, 9 publish a verifiable financial document. The other 4 do not. This is not a French quirk alone: in France the country's largest food retailer, the third and the fifth are cooperatives of independent owners that consolidate no group accounts. E.Leclerc's figure of 51.1 billion euros comes from a press interview with its chairman, not from an annual report. Intermarché's and U's market shares are measured by a private panel.

That is precisely why the Eurostat series matter. They are the only common yardstick, built the same way across all seven markets, independent of what each retailer chooses to disclose.

Only two retailers say how much they actually sold

Almost all of them report revenue. Almost none report volume. Mercadona is the exception and gives both: sales up 8% in value, and 4% in kilo-litres, at 15,067 million. Half its growth therefore does come from more goods sold. Jerónimo Martins, for its part, reports volume growth across all its banners.

Both groups operate in Spain and Portugal. Those are the two markets where the Eurostat series show the strongest food volume growth since 2021, 8.3% and 14.3%, while the euro area is down 1.2%. Two independent measurements, one from accounts and one from statistics, pointing at the same place.

The reverse reading holds too. In Belgium, the market that lost the most volume over the period, 10.6%, Colruyt's market share fell from 29.0% to 28.5% over its financial year. And in France, where the average price rose least, Auchan Retail reports revenue down 0.5%.

In 2026, growth can no longer come from price

This is the point that changes everything for a retailer. Between 2021 and today, euro-area food retail revenue rose 25.6% with volumes falling: growth was mechanical, carried by the price tag. With food inflation back near zero, that engine is off. A retailer growing in 2026 is no longer passing on a price increase, it is taking share from someone else.

Thirteen groups, three ways of reporting

A ranking says who is big. It does not say who sold more goods. Group by group, here is what the 2025 accounts reveal about the split between price and volume.

What the listed groups say

• Ahold Delhaize, EUR 92.4bn. Growth of 3.4% with an underlying operating margin held at 4.0%, against 2.6% for Carrefour, the only comparable figure in this table.
• Carrefour, EUR 91.5bn. The clearest signature of the shift: sales up 2.8% like for like, but EBITDA down 0.4% and recurring operating income down 5.4%. Growth no longer converts into profit.
• Jerónimo Martins, EUR 36.0bn. Growth of 7.6%, and a sentence no one else writes: volume growth across all its banners.
• Colruyt Group, EUR 10.6bn. Belgian market share down from 29.0% to 28.5%, in the European market that lost the most food volume. When the pie shrinks, share is hard to hold.

What the cooperatives say

• Rewe Group, EUR 100.4bn. First year above 100 billion, and in the same year EBITA falling from nearly 2,000 to just over 1,500 million euros. Growth was paid for out of margin.
• EDEKA Verbund, EUR 77.3bn. The network grows 2.7%, but its 3,200 independent retailers achieve 4.6%. Within a single banner, the most local format grows fastest.
• E.Leclerc, EUR 51.1bn. France's largest food retailer reports 2.4% growth excluding fuel. The figure comes from a press interview: no detailed scope, no margin, no volumes.
• Les Mousquetaires (Intermarché), revenue not published. France's second group by market share, 17.5%, and no consolidated accounts published. It is measured only by panel.
• Coopérative U, revenue not published. Market share up 0.6 point over the year, measured from outside. No revenue, no margin, no volumes.

What the family-owned groups say

• Schwarz (Lidl + Kaufland), EUR 185.6bn. Lidl grows 6.1% while Kaufland, its hypermarket format, gains 4.3%. In a country whose food volumes are down 4.9%, the discounter takes what is left.
• Mercadona, EUR 41.9bn. The only one to put a number on what it sold, not just what it took: 15,067 million kilo-litres, up 4%, for 8% more revenue. Half its growth is actual goods.
• Auchan Retail, EUR 32.1bn. French revenue down 0.5%, yet French EBITDA rising from 11 to 154 million euros. The recovery comes from costs and store portfolio, not from sales.
• Aldi Nord + Aldi Süd, EUR 33.7bn. Two entities that consolidate nothing. They are known only through an outside measurement institute, on the German scope alone.

What this analysis shows

• The sector's growth is an accounting illusion. Euro-area food retail revenue is up 25.6% since 2021 with 1.2% less volume. None of that growth comes from an additional customer.
• France raised prices least, and its volumes hold up. Average price 20.5% against 27.1% in the euro area, and volumes up 3.5% while the euro area falls. Spain and Portugal gain even more volume, but with far higher average prices: France is the only one holding its volumes without that.
• The shock happened in two years, not five. Most of the rise happened between 2021 and 2023. What follows is a slow drift. Saying food inflation has lasted five years is wrong: it lasted two years and never came back down.
• The retailers gaining volume are in the markets that gain volume. Mercadona and Jerónimo Martins, the only two groups reporting volume growth, operate in Spain and Portugal, the two markets where Eurostat measures the strongest. Conversely in Belgium, 10.6% of volume lost, Colruyt's market share falls.

Method and sources

All series are public and seasonally adjusted. Retail sale in non-specialised stores with food predominating is NACE class G47.11. The implicit average price is a Nexelys calculation, the ratio of turnover to volume, not a published series.

Main sources

• Eurostat, sts_trtu_m, net turnover in retail trade. Filters: indic_bt = NETTUR, nace_r2 = G47.11, unit = I21 (2021 average = 100), s_adj = SCA (seasonally and calendar adjusted).
• Eurostat, sts_trtu_m, sales volume. Same filters, indic_bt = VOL_SLS. The ratio of the two, times 100, gives the implicit average price.
• Eurostat, prc_hicp_minr, harmonised index of consumer prices. Filters: coicop18 = CP011 (food), unit = I15, series not seasonally adjusted. Rebased to the 2021 annual average = 100 to be comparable with the two series above.
• The same sts_trtu_m dataset with nace_r2 = G47 feeds the table contrasting food with retail as a whole.
• Scope: France, Germany, Spain, Belgium, Netherlands, Portugal and the 21-country euro area aggregate (EA21). Series collected from January 2019, latest available point at publication, shown market by market in the first table.
• Company figures: documents published by each group, listed one by one below with their date. No figure taken from press coverage where an original document exists.

Retailer sources

• Schwarz (Lidl + Kaufland): Schwarz Gruppe, financial year 2025. Lidl EUR 140,200m (+6.1%), Kaufland EUR 36,700m (+4.3%), 14,500 stores in 33 countries.
• Rewe Group: REWE Group, press release of 28 April 2026. Germany EUR 69,100m (+4.6%), international EUR 31,300m (+2.7%). EBITA above EUR 1,500m against nearly EUR 2,000m in 2024.
• Ahold Delhaize: Ahold Delhaize, Q4 and full year 2025 results, 11 February 2026. Underlying operating margin 4.0%. Online sales +13.3% at constant rates.
• Carrefour: Carrefour, Q4 sales and full year 2025 results, 17 February 2026. Up 2.8% like for like. EBITDA EUR 4,506m (-0.4%), recurring operating income EUR 2,158m (-5.4%).
• EDEKA Verbund: EDEKA Verbund, press release of 27 April 2026. EUR 42,700m (+4.6%) generated by 3,200 independent retailers, Netto Marken-Discount EUR 17,900m (+1.6%), 10,871 stores.
• E.Leclerc: Michel-Edouard Leclerc, interview with Les Echos, 16 February 2026. Excluding fuel. Figure given by the chairman in a press interview, with no consolidated financial document published.
• Mercadona: Mercadona, press release of 10 March 2026. Spain EUR 39,766m, Portugal EUR 2,092m. Volume sold up 4% to 15,067 million kilo-litres. Market share 28.5% (+0.6pt). Net profit EUR 1,729m (+25%).
• Jerónimo Martins: Jeronimo Martins, 2025 annual report. Up 6.7% at constant exchange rates. Pingo Doce EUR 5,342m (+5.3%, +4.0% like for like excluding fuel). The group reports volume growth across all its banners.
• Aldi Nord + Aldi Süd: Trade Dimensions, German food retail ranking 2025. German scope only. Neither entity publishes consolidated accounts; the figure comes from a retail measurement institute.
• Auchan Retail: Auchan Retail, full year 2025 results, 5 March 2026. France EUR 16,368m (-0.5%), Spain (Alcampo) EUR 4,540m (-1.4%), Portugal EUR 2,295m (+7.5%). EBITDA EUR 1,025m (+16.1%).
• Colruyt Group: Colruyt Group, financial year 2025/26 results, June 2026. 94.2% of revenue in food. Belgian market share down from 29.0% to 28.5%. Profit from continuing operations EUR 337m (-4.3%).
• Les Mousquetaires (Intermarché): Worldpanel by Numerator, 2025 grocery market shares. No consolidated accounts published. Market share 17.5% (+0.6pt), of which Intermarche 15.4% (+0.4pt).
• Coopérative U: Worldpanel by Numerator, 2025 grocery market shares. No consolidated accounts published. Market share up 0.6 point over the year.