The energy bill returns · Nexelys publication June 2026

Construction

The energy bill is back. In France as much as next door.

Why April's energy rebound ends the lull on BT costs, and what Belgium's shock signals for year-end.

France's construction market sees the end of a lull in June 2026. After a lull, general inflation has turned back up (CPI, the Consumer Price Index, at +2.2 % year-on-year per INSEE in April 2026, after +1.7 % in March), driven by energy and oil product prices. This rebound interrupts the deceleration in BT (Building) cost indices: the BT01 (national construction cost index, all trades) stabilizes around 136 points, but its annual decline stalls. On the volume side, cumulative 12-month authorized housing permits remain at their highest level since 2023 per SITADEL/SDES (Statistical Data and Studies Service of the French Ministry of Ecological Transition), pointing to a visible 2026 order book. Belgium shows the possible scale of the shock: it absorbed an April 2026 inflation rate of +4.01 % (Statbel, vs. +1.65 % in March), almost entirely driven by energy. With French BT/TP cost indices historically correlated to euro-area energy prices with a 6 to 9-month lag, this is a warning signal for the second half.

🔍 Focus: what Belgium's shock tells us about energy risk for French construction

Belgium is an energy thermometer. Its automatic wage indexation system transmits price shocks into the economy immediately, faster than in France. When Belgian CPI (Consumer Price Index, Statbel's official inflation measure) jumps from +1.65 % in March to +4.01 % in April 2026, it means European gas and electricity wholesale markets have moved sharply. France is experiencing the same energy rebound, but cushioned by transmission lag, tariff shields and long-term supply contracts: its CPI rises more moderately, to +2.2 %. The direction, however, is the same. Conclusion: BT47 (national electricity cost index in construction) and TP12a (energy and communication networks), already the most dynamic series in 2025, are again the two cost lines to watch in H2 2026. Contracts and price revisions negotiated in June must factor in this energy comeback.

📈 Market indicators · Construction

France inflation (CPI, INSEE): +2.2 % year-on-year in April 2026, up from +1.7 % in March. Back above the ECB 2 % target, but mostly driven by energy (core inflation at +1.2 %).
Belgium inflation (CPI, Statbel): +4.01 % in April 2026, vs. +1.65 % in March. Energy shock with rapid transmission via Belgian wage indexation.
Why it matters: French BT47 and TP12a indices track euro-area energy prices with a 6 to 9-month lag. The April Belgian shock foreshadows tension on French construction costs at the Q3-Q4 2026 turn.

⚠️ The window of decelerating BT01/TP02 costs has likely already closed with April's energy rebound. Long-term contracts negotiated in June 2026 should factor in a possible Q4 energy price revision. Companies locking in fixed prices without indexation clauses are exposed.

→ Full BT/TP/ICM/ICP indices + Q3 2026 forecasts in the Construction Newsletter

Real estate

Inflation rebounds: the rate cut drifts further away.

Why French CPI back above 2 % closes the rate-cut window.

French real estate is entering a tense observation phase in June 2026. April's reversal (CPI at +2.2 % YoY, after +1.7 % in March per INSEE) pushes back hopes of a quick easing: banks see French inflation move back above the ECB target and have no reason to cut their housing loan grids, which stay around 3.30 % fixed (Banque de France, April 2026 statistics). On the existing side, transactions are holding the recovery pace observed since late 2024 according to Notaires de France. And the European picture leaves the ECB no room: the HICP (Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, the harmonized European inflation used by the ECB) for the euro area is still pulled up by Germany (+2.9 % in April 2026 per Destatis), Spain (+3.2 % per INE, the Spanish National Statistics Institute) and Belgium (+4.0 % per Statbel). As long as this European average remains above 2.5 %, the ECB has no reason to cut its key rates again. France, which is reinflating too, can no longer count on slowing prices alone.

🔍 Focus: why core inflation remains the real compass for credit

Behind April's +2.2 %, French core inflation (excluding energy and food) is only +1.2 % per INSEE. In other words, the rebound is almost entirely energy-driven, hence more volatile and potentially reversible. That nuance matters for credit: banks can tell an energy shock from durable inflation, which should limit further margin hikes on housing loans. But the 10-year OAT (Obligation Assimilable du Trésor, France's 10-year benchmark government bond) tracks overall European inflation: as long as neighbors stay above target, the OAT remains under upward pressure, around 3.75 % (Agence France Trésor, May 2026). Practical conclusion: French buyers face credit that won't drop quickly, but the domestic inflation base remains sound.

📈 Market indicators · Real estate

ECB (European Central Bank) key rate: 2.75 %, paused per Economic Bulletin 2/2026. The ECB is waiting for euro-area HICP disinflation below 2.5 % to resume cuts.
10-year OAT (Agence France Trésor): 3.75 % in May 2026. Spread vs. German Bund still around 70-75 bps (basis points, i.e. 1 bps = 0.01%), reflecting France's sovereign risk premium.
Why the pair matters: the ECB is driven by the euro-area weighted HICP average (not French CPI alone). With France back above 2 % and neighbors even higher, the rate-cut window stays closed in the short term.

⚠️ If energy-driven inflation doesn't ease by autumn, France included, the timeline for an ECB cut in September 2026 will slip. French first-time buyers betting on a quick drop in fixed rates risk waiting in vain. Reasonable strategy: act today at the current 3.30 % rather than hoping for 3.00 % in Q4.

→ Volumes, regional prices and Q3 2026 outlook in the Real Estate Newsletter

Transport

Fuel is rising again. A double blow for transport.

Why rebounding fuel and a stalled German engine box in French transport.

French transport enters a difficult window in June 2026. The rebound in French inflation (CPI at +2.2 % YoY, INSEE April 2026) partly reflects a pickup in fuel prices, which weighs directly on road hauliers (RFT, Road Freight Transport). At the same time, the RFT business climate remains durably depressed at -12 points per the INSEE monthly business survey. The picture is clear: physical volumes are holding (heavy goods vehicle traffic almost stable, +0.8 % YoY on motorways), but hauliers' pricing power is not improving, even as the fuel cost line rises again. The 2025-2026 collective bargaining wage adjustments in the sector, negotiated at the peak of inflation, have become structural. Conclusion: between rising fuel and margins that fail to recover, pressure on road transport is intensifying.

🔍 Focus: why German transport could suffer more than French transport

Germany remains the epicenter of European road transport. German inflation at +2.9 % (Destatis, April 2026) and the May 2026 ifo Geschäftsklima business climate confirm weak domestic demand and an industry still searching for direction. For German hauliers, it's a double trap: operating costs still rising, industrial freight volumes flat. The May 2026 Bundesbank Monthly Report describes near-stagnant German GDP, and the EC Spring 2026 Economic Forecast (European Commission) revises euro-area growth down to 0.9 % for 2026. For French hauliers, it's a warning: as long as the German engine stalls, intra-European freight flows won't restart. The export outlet for French RFT remains constrained, despite a reasonable domestic demand.

📈 Market indicators · Transport

Transport business climate (RFT, INSEE): -12 points in May 2026, nearly unchanged for 6 months. The lowest level since the 2020 health crisis.
German industrial business climate (ifo Geschäftsklima): May 2026, signaling weak domestic demand. The German barometer confirms a stalled engine for European freight.
Why the pair matters: 30 to 40 % of French road freight depends on Franco-German flows. As long as Germany doesn't restart, any improvement in the French RFT climate will stay capped, despite cheaper fuel.

⚠️ The scenario to watch in H2 2026: if German growth stays below 0.5 %, French hauliers could be forced into further consolidation. Dormant capacity from 2023-2024 failures may resurface if domestic demand wavers in turn.

→ Traffic by mode, transport service CPI and 6-month outlook in the Transport Newsletter

Economy

France reinflates, but stays best placed.

Four neighbors, four inflations, one ECB. The spring 2026 energy trap.

The European economic outlook is resynchronizing upward in June 2026, driven by energy. French CPI (Consumer Price Index, INSEE's official inflation measure) climbs back to +2.2 % year-on-year in April 2026, moving above the ECB 2 % target, after +1.7 % in March. At the same time, German inflation holds at +2.9 % (Destatis), Spanish decelerates slightly to +3.2 % (INE, the Spanish National Statistics Institute, the only one of the four easing), and Belgian absorbs a +4.01 % shock (Statbel) driven by energy. The nuance that matters for France: its rise is almost entirely energy-driven, with core inflation at just +1.2 %. On the projections side, the Banque de France (March 2026 macroeconomic projections) anticipates French growth of 0.9 % and average inflation of 1.7 % for the whole of 2026; the EC Spring 2026 Economic Forecast (European Commission) confirms a euro-area slowdown to 0.9 %. France remains the best positioned of the four, but it does not set the ECB calendar alone.

🔍 Focus: why 4 different inflations trap the ECB

The ECB sets monetary policy for 20 economies based on a single indicator: the euro-area HICP (Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices). As long as the weighted European average remains above 2.5 %, it has no reason to cut rates. Yet country gaps remain wide in April 2026: about 180 basis points between France (+2.2 %) and Belgium (+4.0 %). Concretely, the ECB Economic Bulletin 2/2026 describes a euro area where each national economy has its own inflation regime. France keeps the lowest inflation of the four and the most contained core, Germany pays for energy prices, Spain stays on a high plateau despite its slight easing, Belgium absorbs energy and wage indexation. The ECB is mechanically forced to stay on hold, even though France could have benefited from lower rates.

📈 Market indicators · Economy

France inflation (CPI, INSEE) vs. Germany (Destatis): +2.2 % vs. +2.9 % in April 2026. France keeps the lowest inflation among the large euro-area economies.
France 2026 growth (Banque de France projection, March 2026): 0.9 % expected, in line with the EC Spring 2026 Economic Forecast for the euro area (0.9 %).
Why it matters: the ECB is waiting for HICP convergence before moving. As long as countries diverge, the monetary status quo weighs heavier on France, whose underlying inflation stays the lowest, than on its neighbors still higher up.

⚠️ If April's rebound is only an energy spike and French CPI eases back below 2 % by autumn, with euro-area HICP below 2.5 %, a 25 bps ECB cut in September 2026 becomes possible again. Conversely, a lasting summer energy shock pushes any easing back to 2027.

→ Detailed inflation, employment and Europe comparisons in the Economic Outlook Newsletter

The energy bill is back

This month's intuition

The energy bill is back. In France as much as next door.

🔍 Focus: what Belgium's shock tells us about energy risk for French construction

Inflation rebounds: the rate cut drifts further away.

🔍 Focus: why core inflation remains the real compass for credit

Fuel is rising again. A double blow for transport.

🔍 Focus: why German transport could suffer more than French transport

France reinflates, but stays best placed.

🔍 Focus: why 4 different inflations trap the ECB

The common thread: 4 sectors, 1 same message

June 2026 macro context

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Sources & methodology