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📊 Free monthly publication Published November 1, 2026 5 minutes read By Nexelys

Four rates rising, one economy falling

In September 2026 the four ten-year government bond yields we track all move up together: 4.44% in France, 4.12% in Belgium, 3.93% in Spain, 3.47% in Germany. A month earlier three of the four were still easing. And of those four economies only one is contracting in the third quarter: France, at -0.1% year on year. The price of time is rising at the very moment French growth stops. A cross-sector analysis, without jargon, from public sources only.

Sectors: Construction · Real estate · Transport · Economy

This month's intuition

A long-term yield is not the price of a loan, it is the price of time. When the French State borrows for ten years, it sets the floor below which no bank, no developer and no haulier will finance a commitment of the same length. That price has just risen in all four countries we track, and that is new. The French ten-year yield reaches 4.44% in September 2026, against 4.00% in August and 3.68% in June, that is 76 basis points in three months (source: Eurostat, reference long-term interest rate for the convergence criterion, series irt_lt_mcby_m). Germany moves from 2.96% in June to 3.47%, Spain from 3.41% to 3.93%, Belgium from 3.51% to 4.12%. All four rise, and by comparable amounts: 51 to 76 basis points in three months. The move has a dated cause. Brent crude averaged 64.54 dollars in October 2025; it trades at 113.43 dollars on 30 October 2026. Euro area inflation climbs back to 3.8% in September 2026, and the European Central Bank raised its main refinancing rate to 2.65% on 16 September. Where France stands apart is not the level of its yield: it is that it is the only one of the four no longer growing, with gross domestic product down 0.1% year on year in the third quarter of 2026, while Germany gains 1.2%, Spain 2.7% and Belgium 0.7% (source: Eurostat, series namq_10_gdp). Here is what that squeeze moves, sector by sector.

Who pays the most for time

Ten-year yield, inflation and unemployment in September 2026; gross domestic product in the third quarter of 2026. Four harmonised series, same source and same date for all four countries.

Country Ten-year yield, Sept. 2026 Real GDP, Q3 2026 Inflation, Sept. 2026 Unemployment, Sept. 2026
France 4.44% -0.1% +3.4% 8.5%
Belgium 4.12% +0.7% +4.5% 6.0%
Spain 3.93% +2.7% +5.0% 10.3%
Germany 3.47% +1.2% +3.3% 4.1%

Source: Eurostat. Reference long-term interest rate for the convergence criterion (irt_lt_mcby_m), real gross domestic product, year-on-year change (namq_10_gdp), harmonised index of consumer prices (prc_hicp_minr), unemployment rate (une_rt_m). All four series are harmonised and therefore comparable across countries.

Three readings come out of this table. First, France pays the most for time of the four, 4.44%, and it is the only one whose economy is shrinking. Second, the market is pricing neither growth nor inflation: Spain grows 2.7%, runs 5.0% inflation and 10.3% unemployment, and still borrows 51 basis points cheaper than France. What separates the two shows up in a third figure, public debt: 119.1% of gross domestic product in France in the second quarter of 2026, against 110.2% in Belgium, 101.4% in Spain and 63.4% in Germany (source: Eurostat, series gov_10q_ggdebt). The gap between the French and the German yield reaches 97 basis points in September 2026. That is not a cyclical gap, it is a trajectory gap.

Construction

Volume stops falling, cost does not stop rising

362,900 dwellings authorised over twelve months, up 1.0% year on year. Over the same period asphalt is up 11.7% and energy networks 7.9%.

Permits move forward by one month. At the end of September 2026, 362,900 dwellings are authorised over a rolling twelve months, up 1.0% year on year, against 359,300 at the end of September 2025 (source: SDES, Sit@del database, metropolitan France, recent months provisional). That figure calls for two opposite readings. In year-on-year terms it is positive. In level terms it is the sixth consecutive fall since the March 2026 peak of 383,100, which is 20,200 dwellings lost in six months. Authorised living floor area, meanwhile, is down 3.8% over twelve months, at 24.28 million square metres. So slightly more dwellings are authorised, and less floor area. On cost, no pause. The BT01 all-trades index stands at 139.4 in August 2026, up 4.3% year on year, against 133.7 in August 2025 (source: INSEE, 2010 = 100). But it is in civil engineering that the energy shock reads: TP09 asphalt production reaches 138.9, 11.7% above August 2025, and TP12a energy networks 144.4, up 7.9%. Three indices from the same month, three increases ranging from 4.3% to 11.7%: there is no such thing as the cost of construction, there are as many as there are baskets. Commodities confirm the split. In October 2026, the latest closed month, copper holds 14,290 dollars a tonne, while aluminium falls 3.6% in a month, to 3,168 dollars, and lumber 4.5%, to 218.22 dollars a cubic metre.

🔍 Focus: why two indices from the same month do not say the same thing

A BT or TP index is not an inflation rate, it is a level. On a 2010 = 100 base, a BT01 at 139.4 means that the all-trades building cost basket costs 39.4% more than in 2010, not that it rose 39.4% this year. What separates the indices from one another is their composition. BT01 weights every trade, wages included, and labour cushions commodity shocks. TP09 weights asphalt production, where bitumen and heating energy make up most of the price: when crude rises, that index rises almost at once. TP12a weights energy networks, where copper rules. The consequence is very concrete. A multi-year contract carries a price revision clause tied to a named index, and the choice of that index decides who bears the increase. Two neighbouring sites, one revised on BT01 and the other on TP09, have not lived through the same year: 4.3% against 11.7%, a 7.4 point gap over twelve months. Checking which of the two your contract cites is not a legal formality, it is a margin line.

📈 Market indicators: Construction
  • Dwellings authorised, 12 months to September 2026: 362,900, up 1.0% year on year (source: SDES, Sit@del database, metropolitan France)
  • BT01 and TP09 indices, August 2026: 139.4 (up 4.3% year on year) against 138.9 (up 11.7%) (source: INSEE, 2010 = 100)
  • Commodities, October 2026: copper 14,290 dollars a tonne, aluminium 3,168 dollars, lumber 218.22 dollars a cubic metre; steel at 126.1 in August 2026 (sources: COMEX and CME futures; Eurostat, series sts_inpp_m, NACE division C24)
  • Why the gap matters: a cost index is not a selling price, it is the reference of a revision clause. The 7.4 points separating BT01 from TP09 over twelve months are paid by one of the two parties to the contract.
⚠️ The point to watch is revision. Recent months in Sit@del are provisional and get revised: the 1.0% of September, following a 3.9% published the month before, is a statistical carry-over running out rather than a relapse. It is the level of the rolling total, down since March, that matters, not its year-on-year change.
→ Get the detailed construction analysis every month
Real estate

The State borrows at a higher rate than households

The French ten-year yield reaches 4.44% in September 2026 while housing loans are priced at 3.11%. That configuration is the reverse of the normal one.

The French ten-year yield stands at 4.44% in September 2026, against 4.00% in August and 3.68% in June (source: Eurostat, reference long-term interest rate for the convergence criterion). The average rate on new fixed-rate housing loans, by contrast, is 3.11% in the second quarter of 2026, against 2.99% a year earlier (source: Banque de France). In other words the French State borrows 133 basis points more expensively than households do, over the same ten-year term. A caveat written next to the figure itself: the two series do not carry the same date, one is monthly and stops in September, the other quarterly and stops in June, so the gap mixes two periods. It remains the case that a bank does not lend below its own cost of funding for long. Meanwhile the market is not correcting through price. The existing-home price index for France as a whole falls to 125.7 in the second quarter of 2026, 0.9% below a year earlier, with houses at -1.3% and flats at -0.1%, while new build holds exactly last year's level, 131.3 (sources: INSEE and Notaires de France, 2015 = 100). Volumes, however, are still rising: 958,000 existing-home transactions over a rolling twelve months in the second quarter of 2026, up 5.6% year on year, a fourth consecutive quarter of growth (source: Notaires de France). One last word on business premises permits, which we covered last month: the source has revised months already published. The office permits index for August 2026 moves from 60.0 to 58.9 and the index for premises other than offices from 95.8 to 106.2, and we quoted both of the old values. In September 2026 offices stand at 64.2 and other premises at 103.6 (source: SDES, Sit@del database, 2021 = 100).

🔍 Focus: what a long-term yield measures, and what it does not

The French ten-year government bond, known as the OAT, is the benchmark security of French public debt. Eurostat publishes its yield every month for the convergence criterion, and that is the series we quote here. It does not measure what a private borrower pays: it measures what the market demands in order to tie up money for ten years on the State's signature. Everything else is built on top. A fixed-rate mortgage, a capitalised warehouse rent, a development scheme: each is compared with that yield. When it rises 76 basis points in three months, two things happen without any posted price moving. A buyer's borrowing capacity at a constant monthly payment shrinks, and the present value of a future rental income falls. That is why a market can tighten sharply while the price index loses only 0.9% year on year: the adjustment runs first through time to sell and through volume, and only last through price. One final reading precaution: a long-term yield is a market rate, it moves every day, and the monthly figure we quote is an average.

📈 Market indicators: Real estate
  • French ten-year yield, September 2026: 4.44%, against 4.00% in August and 3.68% in June (source: Eurostat)
  • New fixed-rate housing loans, Q2 2026: 3.11%, against 2.99% a year earlier (source: Banque de France)
  • Existing-home prices and volumes, Q2 2026: index 125.7, down 0.9% year on year, on 958,000 transactions over twelve months, up 5.6% (sources: INSEE and Notaires de France)
  • Why the pair matters: a market whose volume rises 5.6% while prices fall 0.9% is not being unlocked by value, it is being unlocked by discounts and by credit. If the cost of credit catches up with the cost of government debt, that engine stops.
⚠️ The point to watch is which of the two sides gives way. Either housing credit climbs towards the sovereign yield, and buyers lose borrowing capacity; or the long-term yield eases, and nothing changes for the buyer. Our own rate paths, reserved for subscribers, now carry all four long-term yields higher through to June 2027, where three of them were still easing last month.
→ Get the detailed real estate analysis every month
Transport

The sector collects more, it does not carry more

Land transport turnover is up 5.7% year on year in August 2026. Of those 5.7 points, 3.6 are price.

The energy shock reaches transport before it reaches anywhere else. Brent crude trades at 113.43 dollars on 30 October 2026, against 64.54 dollars on average in October 2025, and the fuel French households pay for is up 34.3% year on year in September 2026 (sources: Brent futures; Eurostat, harmonised index of consumer prices, fuels component). The sector passes that increase on, but not all of it. The land transport turnover index reaches 139.8 in August 2026, up 5.7% year on year, against 132.3 in August 2025 (source: INSEE, value index, 2021 = 100). In the same month the price of freight transport services rises 3.6%, from 101.38 to 105.00 (source: INSEE, 2025 = 100). Close to two thirds of the sector's growth is therefore price, not tonnage. The volume actually moved confirms it. In June 2026, the latest published point, total rail freight is down 0.8% year on year, inland waterway freight 6.8% and light vehicle motorway traffic 6.0%; only heavy goods vehicle traffic, at up 1.0%, and air freight, at up 4.8%, are growing (source: SDES). There is therefore no modal shift under way. And the fleet is no longer being enlarged: in September 2026 new light commercial vehicle registrations fall 9.9%, to 27,881 units, while heavy goods vehicles are flat at 3,927, down 0.4% year on year (source: SDES, road vehicle statistical register).

🔍 Focus: from the barrel to the invoice, a chain with three links

Between the barrel and the price of a delivery round there are three links. The first is refining: a move in Brent shows up at the pump within a few weeks, amplified or cushioned depending on taxation and distribution margins. The second is the contract: a haulier does not pass on a diesel price, it passes on a diesel indexation clause, revised monthly or quarterly, sometimes with a cap. The third is the structure of the price: the clause covers only the diesel share, the rest being labour, vehicle and overheads. That explains an arithmetic that surprises. Fuels are up 34.3% year on year in September 2026, and the price of freight transport services only 3.5% in the same month (sources: Eurostat; INSEE). It is not that the sector passes nothing on: it is that a shipper's invoice is not a fuel invoice. The gap between the two is the margin, and the margin absorbs the shock first.

📈 Market indicators: Transport
  • Brent, 30 October 2026: 113.43 dollars a barrel, against 64.54 dollars on average in October 2025 (source: Brent futures)
  • Land transport turnover, August 2026: index 139.8, up 5.7% year on year, of which 3.6 points are price (source: INSEE, value turnover index and freight transport service prices)
  • Registrations, September 2026: 3,927 heavy goods vehicles, down 0.4% year on year, and 27,881 light commercial vehicles, down 9.9% (source: SDES, road vehicle statistical register)
  • Why the pair matters: turnover up 5.7% with only 2.1 points of volume is not market share won, it is a price increase passed on. And a light commercial fleet down 9.9% says nobody is betting on extra volume.
⚠️ The point to watch is the gap between two horizons. In September 2026 the expected activity balance for road hauliers recovers to -4.9, after -14.4 in August, but medium-term prospects stay at -18.9 (source: INSEE, business survey in transport, opinion balances). Year-end order books are filling, and nobody believes it will last. A tractor unit is written off over several years: it is the second figure that governs the investment.
→ Get the detailed transport analysis every month
Economy

The widest scissors since 2022

The business climate in industry rises to 105.3 in October 2026. Household confidence falls to 80, the lowest reading of that survey since 1972.

October 2026 pulls apart two indicators that ought to move together. The business climate in industry gains 4.0 points in a month and reaches 105.3, above its long-run average. Household confidence loses 5 and falls to 80 (source: INSEE, composite indicators, where 100 equals the long-run average). That 80 is not one low point among others: it is the weakest reading in the series INSEE has published since October 1972, level with June 2013. The 25.3 points separating the two indicators make the widest gap since June 2022, and the second widest of the whole series, which starts in April 1976. The accounts explain the household side. Unemployment climbs back to 8.5% in September 2026, against 7.9% a year earlier, while the euro area sits at 6.5% (source: Eurostat). French gross domestic product falls 0.1% year on year in the third quarter of 2026, after rising 0.5% in the second (source: Eurostat). And goods consumption in volume is down 0.4% year on year in September, at 46.08 billion euros, with food at -1.2% while transport equipment gains 8.5% (source: INSEE, volumes chained at 2020 prices). Households are not buying more, they are reallocating. On the business side the counterpart is still missing: manufacturing output is strictly flat year on year in August 2026, at -0.1% (source: INSEE, 2021 = 100).

🔍 Focus: three inflations, three different decisions

Inflation is not one figure, it is at least three, and confusing them is expensive this month. First figure, the headline index: it rises 3.4% year on year in September 2026 in France, and 3.8% in the euro area (sources: INSEE; Eurostat, harmonised index of consumer prices). Second figure, the core index, that is to say excluding administered tariffs and volatile-priced products and adjusted for tax measures: it rises only 1.5% year on year (source: INSEE, 2025 = 100). The 1.9 point gap between the two is almost entirely energy, up 10.1% year on year, and transport, up 10.0%. Third figure, core food prices, which fall 0.5% year on year and drop back below their 2025 base. Three readings of the same month, which do not command the same decision. An indexation clause tied to the headline index costs 3.4%; the same clause tied to the core index costs 1.5%. A food retailer waiting for inflation to return in order to lift its average basket is waiting for something its own series no longer carries. And an energy buyer budgeting on the headline index underestimates that line by close to seven points.

📈 Market indicators: Economy
  • Business climate and household confidence, October 2026: 105.3 against 80, for a long-run average of 100 in both cases (source: INSEE)
  • Inflation, September 2026: headline index up 3.4% in France and up 3.8% in the euro area, core up 1.5%, core food down 0.5% (sources: INSEE; Eurostat)
  • Growth and employment: gross domestic product down 0.1% year on year in the third quarter of 2026, unemployment at 8.5% in September 2026 (source: Eurostat)
  • Why it matters: the European Central Bank raised its main refinancing rate to 2.65% on 16 September 2026, from 2.40% since 17 June. That is a single rate for an area where inflation ranges from 3.3% in Germany to 5.0% in Spain, and where France is the only one of the four no longer growing.
⚠️ The point to watch is how the scissors close. A business climate at 105.3 and manufacturing output at -0.1% year on year cannot coexist for long: either output catches up with declared sentiment, or sentiment falls back. Whichever moves first will give the answer.
→ Get the detailed economic outlook every month

The thread: everything that commits over time is retreating

Rank the four sectors by the length of the commitment they require and the apparent disorder becomes a curve. The longest decision is the business premises permit: the office permits index stands at 64.2 in September 2026, on a 2021 = 100 base. Next comes the commercial vehicle, bought for several years: new light commercial vehicles are down 9.9% year on year, and hauliers' medium-term activity prospects stay at -18.9 while their current activity recovers to -4.9. Next comes buying a home, a decision measured in months: existing-home transactions are still rising, by 5.6% year on year. Last comes everyday consumption, which is not really decided at all: it holds, at -0.4% in volume. The further ahead a decision commits, the more it retreats; the more immediate it is, the better it holds. That is no calendar coincidence, it is the same price applying to all of them: the price of time. It has risen 76 basis points in three months on the French State's signature, and 51 to 61 basis points for the three neighbours. The chain is dated. Crude moves from 64.54 dollars in October 2025 to 113.43 dollars on 30 October 2026, euro area inflation climbs back to 3.8% in September, the European Central Bank takes its rate to 2.65% on 16 September, and the market reprices long-dated debt. France pays for that move twice: at the common price, and inside the only one of the four economies that is no longer growing.

Where France stands

One last marker. What sets France apart from the other three countries is neither its inflation, at 3.4% in September 2026 against 5.0% in Spain and 4.5% in Belgium, nor its unemployment, at 8.5% against 10.3% in Spain. It is where two figures meet. Its public debt reaches 119.1% of gross domestic product in the second quarter of 2026, the highest of the four, against 110.2% in Belgium, 101.4% in Spain and 63.4% in Germany (source: Eurostat, series gov_10q_ggdebt). And its gross domestic product falls 0.1% year on year in the third quarter of 2026, the only one of the four in that position (source: Eurostat, series namq_10_gdp). High debt in a growing economy gets diluted; the same debt in a shrinking economy gets heavier every quarter. That is what the 97 basis point gap with Germany is pricing in September 2026. The economic sentiment indicator, incidentally, puts France at 96.1 in October 2026, against 105.1 in Spain, 94.1 in Germany and 89.0 in Belgium (source: Eurostat, series ei_bssi_m_r2): neither the worst-placed of the four, nor above its own norm. France's issue is not the level. It is the slope.

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Sources

Every figure in this publication comes from public sources and can be checked against the source cited. Sit@del data for recent months are provisional and get revised: two values quoted in our October edition were revised this month, and we say so in the text. Year-on-year changes are computed from a month or a quarter against the same period of the previous year, and cross-country comparisons rest on harmonised series with the same base and the same date. Nexelys forecasts do not appear in this publication, apart from their direction, stated without a figure in the real estate card: the values are reserved for subscribers and set out in our sector newsletters and dashboards.